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Media

|
July 18th, 2025

Crypto Market Hits $4T ATH – Why Upside Potential Outweighs Downside Risk

Key Takeaways:

  • Bipartisan regulatory progress fuels investor optimism
  • ETF inflows ease slightly but remain historically strong
  • Total crypto market cap breaks through $4 trillion

Momentum continues in Washington as strong bipartisan support pushes the GENIUS Act forward for presidential signature and sends the Clarity Act to the Senate. While the bills are not without flaws — particularly around consumer protection — the market is welcoming the regulatory clarity as a pivotal moment. The progress signals a maturing institutional framework, and behind-the-scenes initiatives like a Bitcoin accumulation plan appear increasingly plausible. This creates an attractive long-term opportunity for investors.

ETF Flows:

• Bitcoin: $523M – Slight drop but still elevated

• Ethereum: $602M – Following yesterday’s $727M surge

• Solana: $8M – Modest flows despite strong price action

Inflows remain extremely strong, especially for Ethereum, reinforcing its leadership in this leg of the rally. However, the pace and scale of inflows suggest the market is heating up quickly, raising the risk of volatility, especially for altcoins.

Price Action:

• Total Market Cap: ↑ 3.44% ($3.93T)

• Bitcoin: ↑ 1% ($119,670)

• Ethereum: ↑ 5% ($3,625)

• Solana: ↑ 5.25% ($182.70) – Continuing to outperform

The broad-based rally is driven by institutional flows, favorable legislation, and sustained excitement in the space — as seen in record IPO activity and high capital inflows.

Despite the sharp gains, the Fear & Greed Index sits at 71/100, suggesting investor sentiment is elevated but not yet euphoric.

Our View:

The break above $4T in total market cap marks a key milestone in crypto’s maturation. While short-term profit-taking is inevitable after such a strong run, the risk of missing further upside still outweighs the risk of a near-term reversal.

We remain overweight on altcoins, particularly Ethereum and Solana, given their outsized performance and institutional traction. However, given signs of market overheating, we maintain a 10% cash buffer to manage potential volatility ahead.

Positioning:

• Cash: 10% – Preserving flexibility as markets run hot

• BTC: 55% – Core anchor, slightly trimmed for alt rotation

• ETH: 27% – Overweight; strong inflows and leadership

• SOL: 8% – Momentum play with continued upside

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