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On global geopolitics, Russia President Vladimir Putin has proposed three cease-fire conditions that include the Donbas concession, along with no NATO and Western troops were firmly rejected by Kyiv. This has led to low ceasefire odds and elevated escalation risks in the short term.
In Asia, Japan’s 10‑yr JGB rose to 1.615% (the highest since 2008) added to global rate volatility with a firmer USD adding more pressure to cryptocurrencies and other risk-on assets.Across South America, Brazil held its first Bitcoin strategic reserve hearing and is actively considering a $19 billion purchase. The EU has also accelerated digital euro stablecoin plans with a potential launch on either Ethereum or Solana.
Bitcoin (Spot & On‑Chain)
Post‑ATH pullback from $124.4K to $113K region occurred alongside softer realized‑cap growth, that highlighted lighter fresh demand. A dense less than 3‑month supply has built between $115K–$118K with Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) within that timeframe stablizing at 0.96–1.01, indicative of mild loss realization, not capitulation.
ETF Composition & Flows
5‑day outflow streak continued for BTC ETFs with another $194 million exit on Thursday, which signals tactical de‑risking by institutions. ETH ETFs on the other hand rebounded with a $288 million inflow with allocation preference tilting to ETH as its derivatives/volume dominance rises.
Derivatives & Options
Alt OI hit $60 billion ATH before a $2.6 billionshakeout, as BTC futures OI remains elevated. Options worth $3.82 billion for BTC notional and $950 million for ETH expires today along with higher IV indicate two‑way volatility ahead. Block flows show directional disagreement, as downside hedging demand persists.
BTC is coiling below the $113K pivot with short‑tenor IV re‑priced higher and late longs building. Expect choppy, headline‑sensitive ranges over the weekend and keep a keen eye on $112K support holding with key liquidity just below $122K support ($111.2K to $109.4K).
Options expiry, geopolitical overhang, and ETF flow divergence have restored a two‑way, IV‑rich regime. Until BTC reclaims $115K along with improving ETF prints, risk budgeting, staggered execution, and patience remain the highest‑quality playbook.
